By Rémi Noyon

Notice the near-perfect symmetry of the two curves above? It looks like Nicolas Sarkozy is peeling off votes from the National Front, doesn’t it?

When he announced his bid for re-election, Nicolas Sarkozy was faced with a choice. He could either try to draw in voters from centrist François Bayrou or he could swerve to the right. Under the influence of Patrick Buisson, a former journalist for the far right newspaper Minute, he has chosen to harden his stance.

Immigration, Halal, protectionism… Nicolas Sarkozy is poaching on the lands of Marine Le Pen. With success. Over the past few weeks, Marine Le Pen, who once reached 20% in the polls, has plummeted, while Nicolas Sarkozy has widened his base.

Let’s rewind back to a few weeks ago.

4 Feb : Claude Guéant, minister of Interior, declares: “Contrary to left-wing relativist ideology, for us, not all civilizations are equal. Those who defend humanity seem to us more advanced than those who deny it. Those who defend liberty, equality and fraternity seem to us superior to those who accept tyranny, lesser rights for women and ethnic or social hatred.”

11 Feb : “My values for France”. In an interview published by the right-wing newspaper Le Figaro, Nicolas Sarkozy opposes gay marriage, suggests a referendum about how to deal with unemployed people who refuse a job. He proposes to introduce a special jurisdiction for trials involving immigrants, to tighten funds for asylum-seekers and to strip foreigners married to French people of some of their rights.

15 Feb : “Yes, I am a candidate for the presidential elections”. On French TV, president Nicolas Sarkozy officially announces his bid for re-election. He unveils his new motto “A strong France.”

3 & 5 March : Nicolas Sarkozy, speaking at a meeting in Bordeaux, says he wants to introduce mandatory labeling of halal meat. Two days later, he declares that “halal is the single most important topic for French voters,” blowing fire on a controversy spawned by Marine Le Pen.

6 March : On French TV, Nicolas Sarkozy blurts out that “there are too many foreigners in France.”

10 March : Nicolas Sarkozy, in a giant meeting in Villepinte, slams French trade unions. He develops his idea of a president reaching out directly to the people. An idea deemed to be “populist”. Nicolas Sarkozy also declares he wants to “change” the Schengen agreements” to put an end to illegal immigration. Marine Le Pen loves referendums – she has Switzerland and its referendum banning minarets in mind. She is also used to hammering the unions.

12 March : “Who is the real far right candidate in this election, Le Pen or Sarkozy?” asks Guy Verhofstadt, a European deputy from Belgium.

27 March : A few days after the death of Mohamed Merah, Nicolas Sarkozy takes a new swing to the right on immigration. “How can we assimilate new migrants if we can not even manage to assimilate those who are already here?” And he ends up: “Some are going to explain that I am hunting on the lands of the far right. But I just want to speak to the French people, to those who are suffering.”

The transfer of votes for the second round of the presidential elections shows that Marine Le Pen’s voters are seduced by Nicolas Sarkozy’s tough talks. But Frédéric Mitterrand, the Culture minister and nephew of late socialist president François Mitterrand, warns : “When you embrace some of the National Front’s ideas, there is always a risk to catch a nasty disease.”